India global GDP share is set to overtake China’s by 2060, according to a World Inequality Lab report. The study forecasts a decline in China’s contribution to world GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms during the latter half of the century. Currently, China accounts for about 20% of global GDP in PPP terms, making it roughly one third larger than the US economy. Projections indicate China’s GDP will be twice the size of the US by 2035 before its share starts to decline.
Quick Summary
- India is expected to surpass China in global GDP share (PPP) by 2060.
- China currently holds about 20% of world GDP in PPP terms.
- China’s GDP is projected to be twice the US size by 2035.
- China’s share of world GDP is likely to decline in the second half of the 21st century.
What happened
A report by World Inequality Lab (WIL), affiliated with the Paris School of Economics, has projected that India will overtake China in terms of global GDP share when measured by purchasing power parity (PPP) by 2060.
The report, titled Global Justice Report: A Plan for Equality and Prosperity With Planetary Boundaries, highlights the expected decline in China’s contribution to world GDP in the latter half of the 21st century, shifting the global economic landscape.
Key data or announcement
Currently, China’s share of the world GDP in PPP terms stands at about 20%, making it approximately one third larger than the US GDP by the same measure.
According to WIL’s benchmark projections, China’s GDP will continue to grow at a pace that makes it twice as large as the US economy by 2035. However, beyond this point, China’s share of global GDP is expected to decline, enabling India to eventually overtake it by 2060.
Why it matters
This shift in global GDP share has implications for economic strategy, international trade, and investment patterns. India surpassing China in PPP terms signals a rebalancing of economic influence between the two Asian giants in coming decades.
While China has been a dominant growth force for several decades, its relative slowdown could reshape global economic dynamics, with India positioned as a major growth engine thereafter.
Impact on consumers, businesses, markets or policy
The projected change in India global GDP share may prompt policymakers to align long-term development and trade strategies with anticipated shifts in economic weight.
Businesses and markets may also recalibrate investment destinations and supply chains reflecting India’s rise relative to China, especially in sectors sensitive to GDP growth and consumer demand.
What to watch next
Key indicators to monitor include China’s economic growth trajectory post-2035 and India’s ability to sustain its expansion over the decades leading to 2060.
Future reports from World Inequality Lab and other economic research entities will provide updates on structural shifts in global GDP shares and the implications for global economic order.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does purchasing power parity (PPP) mean in GDP measurement?
PPP adjusts GDP figures to account for differences in price levels across countries, providing a more accurate comparison of economic output and living standards.
Why is China’s share of global GDP expected to decline after 2035?
The report suggests structural changes leading to slower growth in China’s economy in the second half of the 21st century, but exact causes require further analysis beyond the report.
How significant is India surpassing China in global GDP share?
It marks a major shift in global economic influence, with India potentially becoming the largest economy by PPP share by 2060, impacting trade and policy dynamics.
Who produced the report forecasting India’s GDP growth?
The World Inequality Lab, a research centre at the Paris School of Economics, authored the Global Justice Report outlining these projections.
When will China’s GDP be twice the size of the US GDP according to projections?
China’s GDP is projected to be twice as large as the US GDP around the year 2035.
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Source note: This article is based on ET announcement dated 2026-06-05. Readers should refer to the official source for detailed rules, eligibility, deadlines or compliance requirements. View original source.
